Elections for Iran’s new president are scheduled to be held on Friday. The current president, Khatami, is ineligible to run again, having served two terms. The leading candidate, Rafsanjani, a former president, has less than the 50% support required to avoid a run-off, which means that he will likely be pitted against either conservative Qalibaf or reformer Moin.
This is really a mixed bag. Rafsanjani has made overtures towards improving relations with the West and liberalizing, to a very small degree, the country’s domestic policies. However, it is questionable whether he will be able to pull off either of those feats, given that a) he was a pretty conservative (read: fundamentalist) president when he held the post from 1989-1997, and b) it is the Guardian Council, made up of hard-line clerics, that actually approve policy, acting as a sort of “Supreme Court” that declares any given action constitutional or unconstititonal, all in accordance with Islamic law. Therefore, Rafsanjani’s power would be limited, even if his ideology were to tend towards liberalization. The outgoing president, Khatami, suffered from this problem to a large extent. It should be noted, however, that Rafsanjani was a very popular president, and some even called for amending the Iranian constitution to allow him to serve a third consecutive term.
Qalibaf is a former police chief and Revolutionary Guards leader who is very conservative in his views. Though he has tried to soften his image, I think he will have a real uphill climb to beat Rafsanjani, who is more moderate.
Moin is an academic and a reformer — one of the few reformers allowed on the ballot (the Guardian Council has to approve any candidate’s eligibility to run, and most reformist candidates can’t get past this vetting stage for obvious reasons). He will probably pick up a substantial portion of the younger vote, which constitutes approximately half of the Iranian population. Incidentally, Moin is, essentially, pro-U.S.
One of the great questions in this election is voter turnout. The Islamic Republic of Iran, like every other authoritarian regime in the world, is anxious to prove to the rest of the world that it is, indeed, a republic or, better yet, a democracy. Therefore, voter turnout is important, just as it was important to Yasser Arafat and Saddam Hussein, even when the results of those “elections” were foregone conclusions. In this case the result is not a foregone conclusion, however voter turnout is still important to give the imprimatur of legitimacy to a government that heavily controls what candidates can run in the first place. At this point, voter turnout is expected to be no higher than 50%, which is much lower than the reported 80% of the last two elections, and amounts to a vote of no-confidence in the current Iranian government. One of the ways the current president, Khatemi, is trying to boost turnout among younger voters is by giving them a cause to rally around: the “Death to America” cause. Fortunately, this is not resonating well, as most younger voters want to improve Iran’s relations with America.
The young people in Iran are torn, most wanting reform, but realizing that no matter who they vote for, reform is not likely to come. This is the result of seeing their hopes dashed by Khatami, who was largely ineffectual in instituting any sort of liberalizing policies during his two terms as president. Recognizing this discouragement and frustration, the regime has cleverly instituted a liberalizing policy in advance of the elections. Many cultural taboos which are ordinarily strictly enforced, such as the head-t0-toe covering of women with the shador (like an Afghan burka), the public mingling of men and women, and other “Western” affectations (hair style, music, etc.) are not being enforced to give the youth a sense that the government will heed respond to their desires. Unfortunately, this liberalization will almost certainly disappear once the elections are over. Also, some fear that these temporary liberal policies may backfire by distracting the youth from the deeper political issues, which may hinder voter turnout.
Once again, why is all this relevant? Several reasons, but I will point out only three. First, who is president will have a tremendous impact on the current nuclear crisis in Iran. A reformist president (granted, hobbled by the Guardian Council) will have some influence on negotiations and policy. Second, Iran is the leading exporter of terrorism, almost single-handedly supporting and financing Hezbolla, the terrorist group that is greatly influencing the politics of a newly-free Lebanon and is keeping the Palestinian-Israel dispute on a violent footing. Finally, Iran’s posture is, to a great extent, the posture of the Middle East. A liberalization of Iranian policy, both foreign and domestic, would be a tremendous leap forward in transforming the Middle East.
Stalled in the Beltway Traffic Jam.
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Trackback by symptoms of diabetes 2 — October 28, 2006 @ 12:13 am
Ahmedinejaad kinda came out of left field, eh?
Comment by Jenda — November 19, 2007 @ 8:09 pm